评估城市铁路运输网络在危险下以乘客为中心的弹性:动态弹性评估框架
Ying Lu1, Minmin Yi1, Jianqiang Cui2
1School of Civil Engineering, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu 211189, China.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|April 23, 2025
概括
城市铁路运输 (URT) 弹性是使用一种以乘客为中心的新型模型来评估的. 调查结果显示,在故障发生后,旅行时间和复杂性增加,突出显示地铁系统需要改进防灾准备.
科学领域:
- 运输工程 运输工程
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 灾害管理 灾害管理
背景情况:
- 城市轨道交通 (URT) 系统是复杂的,在灾难期间容易发生级联故障.
- 乘客体验和服务质量是现代URT运营的关键因素.
- 现有的弹性评估往往忽视了动态的乘客流量和需求.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个动态的,以乘客为中心的模型来评估URT的抗灾能力.
- 评估级联故障对乘客旅行行为和网络性能的影响.
- 提供数据驱动的见解,以提高URT的抗灾能力和服务质量.
主要方法:
- 开发一种新的以乘客为中心的弹性评估模型,使用动态指标.
- 建立一个级联故障模型,模拟乘客在几何攻击模型下的路线选择.
- 从北京地铁系统收集和分析经验数据.
主要成果:
- 级联故障显著增加了乘客的通用旅行时间成本和转移时间.
- 关键的弹性指标被发现在故障后处于中度低水平.
- 乘客旅行路线变得更加复杂,这表明网络恢复能力下降.
结论:
- 北京地铁系统的弹性需要改进,以更好地处理中断并保持服务质量.
- 建议增加冗余线路等策略,以增强抗灾能力.
- 应适应不同城市交通网络的具体特征,以量身定制弹性评估和优化策略.
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