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通过场景分析实现气候中立性:从地方当局的角度来看
Alīna Safronova1, Aiga Barisa1
1Institute of Energy Systems and Environment, Riga Technical University, Azenes street 12/1, Riga, Latvia.
Journal of environmental management
|April 23, 2025
概括
市政当局可以通过应用避免-转移-改进 (ASI) 框架来推动可持续的交通. 将"转变"和"改进"战略与城市规划相结合,对于气候中立至关重要,尽管目前的努力不足以实现2050年的目标.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 运输政策 运输政策
背景情况:
- 交通运输部门是全球排放的主要来源,阻碍了脱碳努力.
- 市政府是制定可持续交通政策的关键,但面临着数据和资源有限等障碍.
- 地方当局需要有效的,基于洞察力的决策方法来解决运输排放问题.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析建模场景,以指导地方当局在运输部门实现气候中立.
- 评估市级避免转班改进 (ASI) 框架的有效性.
- 确定综合解决方案,以实现城市交通中的显著减排.
主要方法:
- 文献综述,重点关注当地因素和城市在可持续交通中的作用.
- 开发和分析用于减少运输排放的建模场景.
- 里加的案例研究分析,以评估不同的政策策略 (避免,转变,改进).
主要成果:
- "避免"政策显示出适度的减排效应.
- "转变"政策在早期实施时表现出更大的减少.
- "改善"政策产生了最实质性的长期减排.
- 综合战略可以显著减少排放,但不足以实现2050年的气候中立性.
结论:
- 为了大幅减少运输排放,需要结合"转变"和"改进"战略,与智能城市规划和"20分钟城市"等概念相结合.
- 市政府需要更简单,洞察力驱动的方法,以便在可持续交通政策中有效地做出决策.
- 到2050年实现气候中立性需要综合和雄心勃勃的可持续运输解决方案,超出目前的政策组合.
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