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人类活动加速了LULC转换,只有可持续发展的发展方案才是农牧生态发展的最佳方案
Jing Jin1,2,3, Zilong Liao4,5,6, Tiejun Liu4,5,6
1Yinshanbeilu Grassland Eco-Hydrology National Observation and Research Station, China Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Research (MWR), Beijing, 100038, China. jinjingmwr@163.com.
Scientific reports
|April 24, 2025
概括
自1998年以来,塔布流域的土地利用变化显示了农田的增加和草原的减少,这些变化是由自然和人为因素推动的. 可持续管理可以平衡发展和生态系统稳定.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 地理 地理 地理 地理.
背景情况:
- 农牧生态环境在生态和社会经济上至关重要.
- 了解土地使用和土地覆盖 (LULC) 变化驱动因素至关重要,但往往不完整.
研究的目的:
- 构建一个系统的框架,用于对塔布流域的LULC评估.
- 分析LULC动态,并在全面的时间框架内确定驱动机制.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个系统的LULC评估框架.
- 利用随机森林回归来分析草原变化的驱动因素.
- 使用动态度和结构变化系数评估LULC变化和变化.
主要成果:
- 1998年开始的LULC显著变化,标志着农田的增加和草原的减少.
- 草原与农田之间的高转换率 (>95%);建筑用地侵占草原.
- 草原变化受到自然因素和人为驱动因素 (农田,建筑用地) 的影响.
结论:
- 人为驱动因素显著影响该地区的LULC动态.
- 可持续发展场景项目增加了草原,减少了赤裸的土地,控制了农田的减少,并稳步增加了建筑用地.
- 实现可持续发展可以平衡社会经济进步与生态系统稳定,为土地管理提供指导.
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