在整个欧洲开发和验证湿地植物物种分布模型
Ojaswi Sumbh1, Marjon Hellegers1,2, Valerio Barbarossa1,3
1PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency The Hague the Netherlands.
Ecology and evolution
|April 24, 2025
概括
我们开发了265种湿地植物和的物种分布模型 (SDM),发现气候变量如温度是关键预测因素. 这些模型显示了保护计划的良好预测能力,特别是对于.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 生物多样性保护 生物多样性保护
- 计算生物学 计算生物学
背景情况:
- 湿地面临排水,农业和气候变化的威胁,影响生物多样性.
- 对于湿地植物而言,现有的物种分布模型 (SDM) 往往在地理上有限,缺乏关键的水文数据.
- ,作为湿地的重要组成部分,在当前的SDM研究中经常被忽视.
研究的目的:
- 为欧洲湿地的265种血管植物和物种开发和验证强大的SDM.
- 为了提高准确性,将气候,土壤,水文和人为变量纳入SDM.
- 评估SDM对不同植物群体 (,诊断性血管植物,非诊断性植物) 的预测性能.
主要方法:
- 使用环境数据 (气候,土壤,水文,人类影响) 开发了265种物种的SDM.
- 通过交叉验证和全球生物多样性信息设施 (GBIF) 数据验证的空间预测.
- 经过验证,与实证数据对比的模拟利基最佳.
主要成果:
- SDM表现出强大的预测能力,特别是对于诊断 (中位数AUC 0.93,TSS 0.73) 和血管植物 (中位数AUC 0.91,TSS 0.69).
- 气候变量,特别是最冷的月份温度,是主要的预测因素.
- 地下水表深度显著影响了诊断血管植物,但不是.
结论:
- 开发的SDM有效地预测了气候驱动的大规模湿地植物分布.
- 模型显示,在识别湿地植物的保护策略方面,有很好的潜力.
- 对于精细规模的预测,可能需要进一步精细化当地水文数据.
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