自然溢出风险和疾病爆发:过度简化是否会危及公共卫生?
David Bell1, Jean von Agris2, Blagovesta Tacheva2
1Independent Consultant, Lake Jackson, TX, USA.
Journal of epidemiology and global health
|April 24, 2025
概括
疫情预防政策依赖于未经证实的假设,即环境变化带来的动物性传染病溢出增加. 通过强有力的证据重新评估这些假设对于有效的疫情风险管理至关重要.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球公共卫生议程主要以疫情预防,准备和应对 (PPPR) 为主,并提出大幅增加资金.
- 目前的PPPR政策在很大程度上是基于对日益升级的流行病风险的假设,主要归因于动物传播传播的增加.
- 动物传染病溢出的推测驱动因素包括人类引起的环境变化,如森林砍伐和气候变化.
研究的目的:
- 批判性地评估证据基础,支持动物性传染病溢出因人为环境因素而增加的假设.
- 确定目前对疫情驱动因素的理解中的过度简化和知识差距.
- 倡导基于证据的PPPR政策重新评估.
主要方法:
- 文献审查和科学报告和支持PPPR政策的同行评审出版物的批判性分析.
- 检查动物病传播事件背后的生态复杂性.
- 评估不断发展的病原体检测能力的影响.
主要成果:
- 支持PPPR政策的许多假设,特别是关于动物传播传播和其驱动因素的增加,并没有得到引用文献的坚实支持.
- 环境变化和动物传染病溢出之间的关系很复杂,在政策驱动的叙述中经常过于简单化.
- 快速发展的病原体检测能力可能会导致人们对疫情频率的增加产生歪曲的看法.
结论:
- 目前关于疫情准备的公共卫生政策可能基于有缺陷或过于简单的假设.
- 迫切需要对疫情驱动因素有更细微的了解,承认生态复杂性和知识差距.
- 基于证据的再评估对于开发有效和高效的干预措施来管理疫情风险至关重要.
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