在美国疫苗接种减少的情况下,疫苗消除的传染病的复发模式
Mathew V Kiang1, Kate M Bubar2, Yvonne Maldonado1,3
1Department of Epidemiology and Population Health, Stanford University, Stanford, California.
JAMA
|April 24, 2025
概括
儿童疫苗接种率下降可能会导致麻疹等疾病再次出现, 保持高疫苗接种率对于预防疫情和保护公众健康至关重要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学
- 公共卫生
- 传染病模型
背景情况:
- 在美国,儿童接种疫苗成功消除了许多传染病.
- 疫苗接种率下降和政策辩论构成了这些疾病重新出现的风险.
研究的目的:
- 根据儿童疫苗接种情况的下降,估计美国麻疹,红疹,脊髓灰质炎和白喉病例和并发症的数量.
- 评估这些疫苗可预防疾病的流行风险.
主要方法:
- 使用模拟模型评估疾病在美国的传播.
- 该模型包含有关人口统计,人口免疫力和疾病进口风险的特定区域数据.
- 使用2004-2023年疫苗接种数据评估了25年的不同疫苗接种率.
主要成果:
- 在目前的疫苗接种率下,麻疹可能会重新流行,估计25年内有851,300例.
- 麻疹疫苗接种率下降10%可能导致1110万例麻疹病例;下降50%可能导致超过5100万例麻疹病例,以及数百万例红疹和脊髓灰质炎病例,以及显著的死亡率.
- 疫苗接种率下降50%可能导致159,200人死亡,1030万人住院,麻疹,红疹和可能的脊髓灰质炎的流行率恢复.
结论:
- 疫苗接种率下降将增加疫情爆发频率,并导致疫苗可预防的流行疾病的复发.
- 即使在目前的疫苗接种水平下,麻疹也可能是第一个恢复流行性的疾病.
- 为了防止这些传染病在美国再次出现,必须对儿童进行大量的常规疫苗接种.
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