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优化人类狂犬病疫苗供应链:一个建模研究
Martha M Luka1, Elaine A Ferguson2, Eleanor Rees2
1School of Biodiversity, One Health & Veterinary Medicine, College of Medical, Veterinary and Life Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow G12 8QQ, Scotland, UK..
Vaccine
|April 24, 2025
概括
皮肤内 (ID) 狂犬病暴露后预防 (PEP) 疫苗接种显著减少了疫苗的使用和库存,即使在需求较低的环境中. 量身定制的库存管理改善了疫苗的可用性,并防止狂犬病死亡.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 疫苗学 疫苗学 疫苗学
- 供应链管理 供应链管理
背景情况:
- 狂犬病每年造成数千人死亡,特别是在低收入和中等收入国家.
- 暴露后预防 (PEP) 疫苗是有效的,但由于成本和供应链失败,导致库存不足,因此面临准入挑战.
- 疫苗联盟Gavi投资改善Gavi资格国家获得PEP疫苗的机会.
研究的目的:
- 为了评估坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚的PEP需求.
- 检查库存管理策略,以改善Gavi资格国家的疫苗供应链.
主要方法:
- 负二项分布与坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚的5年咬伤患者数据相匹配.
- 根据世卫组织推的肌内 (IM) 和皮内 (ID) 方案,对PEP疫苗需求进行了模拟.
- 模拟的疫苗使用,库存短缺和库存管理策略的影响进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 咬伤患者的发病率有显著的变化,需求激增超过月均值,特别是在发病率低的环境中.
- 皮肤内接种 (ID) 疫苗可以减少超过55%的瓶子使用,并降低停产风险.
- 分散PEP改善了访问,但减少了瓶子共享机会,增加了瓶子使用;基于患者吞吐量确定了弹性供应链策略.
结论:
- 皮内 (ID) 疫苗接种有效地减少了瓶子的使用和缺货,即使在低通量环境中也适用.
- 量身定制库存管理策略,包括预警门和补充量,可以加强狂犬病疫苗融入至关重要的免疫供应链.
- 通过优化供应链改善疫苗的可用性可以防止不必要的狂犬病死亡,尽管需要考虑后勤权衡.
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