电力和工业净零,创造或摧毁价值和就业机会?
Caroline Ganzer1,2,3, Piera Patrizio3, Niall Mac Dowell2,3
1Max Planck Institute for Dynamics of Complex Technical Systems, 39106 Magdeburg, Germany.
iScience
|April 25, 2025
概括
脱碳可以在英国创造就业机会和经济价值,但只有在特定条件下. 扩大国内低碳产业促进了就业,而离岸排放减少了它.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 社会经济影响分析.
背景情况:
- 脱碳努力往往声称创造就业机会和经济效益.
- 这些说法的可信度受到缺乏标准化的方法和定量分析的限制.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估净零场景在英国的经济价值和就业影响.
- 分析国内产业扩张与离岸化对创造就业机会和经济价值的影响.
主要方法:
- 应用就业和经济发展影响 (JEDI) 框架.
- 针对净零场景的英国电力和工业部门的建模.
- 总增加值和就业影响的量化.
主要成果:
- 如果条件有利,净零目标可以产生总增值和就业机会.
- 工业排放的离岸化导致经济价值和创造就业机会的减少.
- 扩大国内低碳产业增加价值和创造就业机会.
结论:
- 脱碳对经济价值和就业的影响取决于战略实施.
- 优先考虑国内低碳工业增长对于最大化社会经济效益至关重要.
- 关于供应链 (本地或进口) 的政策决策对经济结果产生重大影响.
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