开发一个模型来预测前列腺癌幸存者的自杀风险
Jie Yang1, Hai-Ming Liu1, Xiang Qu1
1Baoji High-Tech Hospital, Baoji, China.
Frontiers in medicine
|April 25, 2025
概括
使用七个临床因素开发了前列腺癌幸存者自杀风险的预测模型. 该工具有助于识别高风险个体,以便及时进行干预.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 与普通人群相比,癌症幸存者面临着更高的自杀风险.
- 前列腺癌幸存者是癌症幸存者的最大群体,需要有针对性的风险评估.
- 预测这种脆弱人群中自杀风险对于有效干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证前列腺癌幸存者的自杀风险预测模型.
- 确定与增加自杀风险相关的关键临床预测因素.
- 为早期识别高风险个体提供一个工具.
主要方法:
- 利用了监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库,包括238,534名前列腺癌患者.
- 使用考克斯回归,最佳子集回归 (BSR) 和LASSO用于初始变量选择.
- 选择的最终模型变量使用后向阶段式考克斯回归和使用C指数和ROC曲线评估性能.
主要成果:
- 开发了一个包含年龄,种族,婚姻状况,收入,PSA水平,M阶段和手术状况的模型.
- 该模型显示出良好的区分能力 (C指数0.702培训,0.688验证).
- 通过该模型识别的高风险幸存者自杀风险高3.5倍.
结论:
- 成功建立了一种可靠的前列腺癌幸存者自杀风险的七个预测模型.
- 该模型有助于医疗保健专业人员识别高风险幸存者,以便采取及时的预防措施.
- 这种预测工具支持及时干预,以减轻这一群体的自杀风险.
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