基于多变量指标的洪水危险测绘,使用印度沿海洪水的主要驱动因素
Sweta Singh1, Ankan Chakraborty2, Ravi Ranjan1
1Environmental Science and Engineering Department, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai, 400076, India.
Journal of environmental management
|April 25, 2025
概括
印度沿海地区面临来自旋风和极端降雨的重大洪水风险. 这项研究使用TOPSIS绘制危险地区的地图,确定奥迪沙和西孟加拉州是需要有针对性的缓解策略的高风险地区.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
- 沿海地区的管理
背景情况:
- 沿海地区是重要的经济枢纽,但面临着由气旋,暴风雨和极端降雨等复合灾害带来的不断升级的威胁.
- 政府间气候变化专家组 (IPCC) 强调需要评估沿海危险作为多驱动因素复合事件.
- 印度广泛的海岸线 (约11,098公里) 特别脆弱,需要进行全面的危险评估.
研究的目的:
- 进行印度沿海地区的多驱动沿海洪水危险评估.
- 在TOPSIS框架内比较不同的客观权重方法 (均等权重,基于,基于PCA).
- 确定关键的危险驱动因素和高风险地区,以制定有针对性的缓解计划.
主要方法:
- 采用基于指标的方法,使用以理想解决方案相似度为优先顺序的技术 (TOPSIS).
- 使用了三种客观权重估计方法:等权重,基于统计的权重和基于主要组件分析 (PCA) 的权重.
- 关键指标包括气旋频率,风暴潮,风速,潮范围和极端降水超标概率.
主要成果:
- 基于的权重突出了旋风频率,而基于PCA的权重提供了一个平衡的评估.
- 根据PCA加权的TOPSIS提供了比加权的TOPSIS更保守的危险视角.
- 东北和西北沿海地区被确定为高度易受危害的地区,奥迪沙和西孟加拉邦显示持续高水平.
结论:
- 调查结果显示,不同地区的风险驱动因素不同:气旋主导着孟加拉湾海岸,而降雨和潮影响着古吉拉特和马哈拉施特拉.
- 喀拉拉邦和泰米尔纳德州的危险水平通常较低.
- 该研究为制定特定区域的洪水减缓战略和优化沿海适应力的资源配置提供了科学基础.
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