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量化基于能源的适应所产生的全球气候反
Alexander C Abajian1, Tamma Carleton2,3, Kyle C Meng4,5,6
1Department of Economics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA, USA. alexander_abajian@ucsb.edu.
Nature communications
|April 25, 2025
概括
通过能源使用的气候适应可能会使地球变冷,而不是变暖. 这种以能源为基础的适应可以降低全球气温,节省数万亿美元的损失,帮助缓解气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 能源政策 能源政策
背景情况:
- 对气候变化的行为反应,例如增加用于冷却的能源使用,可能是碳密集型的.
- 这引发了人们对适应策略的担忧,这些策略可能会通过积极的反循环加剧全球变暖.
研究的目的:
- 实证地预测未来适应性能源使用对整个21世纪全球平均温度的影响.
- 量化避免的经济损害以及对国家减缓承诺的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一种实证方法来模拟基于能源的适应.
- 根据代表度路径 (RCP) 4.5 和 8.5.5 预测的全球平均表面温度变化.
- 估计的经济损失和对国家自主贡献 (NDC) 的影响.
主要成果:
- 基于能源的适应预计到2099年将全球平均表面温度降低0.07至0.12°C.
- 这种降温效应避免了0.6到1.8万亿美元的损失 (2019美元).
- 适应性能源使用在85%的国家减少了排放,使NDC所需的减缓率平均降低了20%.
结论:
- 适应性能源使用,与担忧相反,不太可能加速变暖.
- 显著的经济效益和减轻缓解负担与基于能源的适应有关.
- 这些发现对各国现有的减缓气候变化的承诺和战略有着至关重要的影响.
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