基于NHANES 2005-2018的慢性脏病患者预测抑郁风险的诺姆图的开发和验证
Qiqi Yan1, Guiling Liu1, Ruifeng Wang1
1Department of Nephrology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Anhui Medical University, No.678, Furong Road, Hefei, 230601, China.
Journal of health, population, and nutrition
|April 25, 2025
概括
一种新的名图有效地预测慢性病 (CKD) 患者的抑郁风险,使用人口统计学,并发症和生活方式因素. 该工具有助于早期识别高风险个体,以便更好地管理.
科学领域:
- 腎臟病學 (nephrology) 是一種醫學專業.
- 精神病学是一个精神病学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
背景情况:
- 抑郁症在慢性病 (CKD) 患者中很普遍,对结果产生负面影响.
- 在CKD中早期发现抑郁风险对于及时干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于预测CKD患者抑郁风险的诺米克图.
- 创建一个用户友好的工具,用于评估抑郁风险的临床应用.
主要方法:
- 使用了来自国家健康和营养检查调查 (NHANES) (2005-2018) 的数据.
- 雇佣最小绝对缩小和选择操作员 (LASSO) 和多变量后勤回归用于预测器识别.
- 使用ROC曲线,校准曲线和决策曲线分析评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 包括4414名参与者;确定性别,年龄,种族,贫困与收入比例,糖尿病,心血管疾病,睡眠问题,睡眠时间和吸烟作为预测因素.
- 实现了0.785 (训练集) 和0.773 (验证集) 的曲线下面面积 (AUC),表明了良好的预测准确性.
- 证明了良好的校准和临床实用性,校正后C指数为0.776.
结论:
- 开发的诺米图是预测CKD患者抑郁风险的有效工具.
- 诺米图集成了关键的人口统计,并发症和生活方式因素,用于早期风险识别.
- 一个基于网络的计算器增强了nomogram在日常实践中的临床适用性.
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