在气候变化下,用于预测竹 (Tylonycteris pachypus) 适合分布的Biomod2建模
Kai Chen1, Weiwei Shao1, Yalei Li1
1College of Ecology, Lishui University, Lishui 323000, China.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|April 26, 2025
概括
气候变化威胁着竹子蝙蝠 (Tylonycteris pachypus) 的适合性息地缩小了64%以上. 保护工作必须保护适应气候变化的地区和竹子走廊,因为竹子的分散能力有限.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 气候变化生物学 气候变化生物学
- 保护科学 保护科学
背景情况:
- 息地专家的分布有限,容易受到气候变化的影响.
- 竹子居住的蝙蝠Tylonycteris pachypus因环境变化而面临分布变化.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化场景下建模Tylonycteris pachypus的当前和未来分布.
- 确定影响蝙蝠息地适宜性的关键环境驱动因素.
- 评估物种的脆弱性,并为保护战略提供信息.
主要方法:
- 使用Biomod2平台与全面的事件数据组合建模型.
- 分析了七个关键的环境变量,包括温度和降水.
- 取得了很高的预测准确度 (AUC:0.981,TSS:0.877). 这是一个非常好的结果.
主要成果:
- 最冷的月份的最低温度,最热的月份的最高温度,以及最潮湿的季度的降水都至关重要.
- 目前的适宜息地 (291.893 × 10^4 km^2) 位于东南亚和印度的部分地区.
- 根据SSP585的计划,到2090年代,预计息地减少64.4%,向北转移.
结论:
- 泰洛尼克特 (Tylonycteris pachypus) 是极易受气候变化影响的动物,预计将出现大量息地丧失.
- 有限的分散能力和息地特异性可能会阻碍适应气候变化.
- 迫切需要保护战略,重点关注适应气候变化的息地和竹林连接.
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