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模拟和预测使用时间序列方法在肉中死亡到达:泰国的案例研究
Chalita Jainonthee1,2,3, Panneepa Sivapirunthep4, Pranee Pirompud5
1Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai 50100, Thailand.
Animals : an open access journal from MDPI
|April 26, 2025
概括
无抗生素的肉生产面临运输死亡率的挑战. 像TBATS和ETS这样的时间序列模型准确预测到达时死亡的百分比,有助于主动管理和改善动物福利.
科学领域:
- 禽畜科学 禽畜科学 禽畜科学
- 动物福利 动物福利
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 无抗生素 (ABF) 肉生产是可持续农业的关键.
- 运输压力增加了ABF肉的死亡率.
- 准确预测运输死亡率对于福利和效率至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析每个月到达时死亡人数 (%DOA) 的时间序列数据.
- 对比各种时间序列模型的%DOA预测性能.
- 评估预测模型作为ABF肉生产中的决策支持工具的实用性.
主要方法:
- 从127,578只肉运输 (2018-2024) 中收集和汇总的月度%DOA数据.
- 分解时间序列数据以确定趋势和季节性.
- 通过使用历史和测试数据,训练和评估SARIMA,NNAR,TBATS,ETS和XGBoost模型.
主要成果:
- 在%DOA中确定了一个明显的季节性模式.
- TBATS (21.2% MAPE) 和ETS (22.1% MAPE) 的预测准确度最高.
- 这些模型的表现明显优于NNAR (54.4%MAPE) 和XGBoost (29.3%MAPE).
结论:
- 时间序列预测模型,特别是TBATS和ETS,对于预测ABF肉生产中的运输死亡率非常有价值.
- 准确的%DOA预测支持主动规划以减少损失.
- 改进的规划可以提高动物福利和可持续家禽养殖的运营效率.
相关概念视频
Introduction To Survival Analysis
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to study time-to-event data, where the "event" might represent outcomes like death, disease relapse, system failure, or recovery. A unique feature of survival data is censoring, which occurs when the event of interest has not been observed for some individuals during the study period. This requires specialized techniques to handle incomplete data effectively.
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time until a...
The primary goal of survival analysis is to estimate survival time—the time until a...
Life Tables
A life table is a statistical tool that summarizes the mortality and survival patterns of a population, providing detailed insights into the likelihood of survival or death across different age intervals within a cohort. By organizing data on survival probabilities and mortality rates, life tables offer a clear snapshot of population dynamics over time. They are extensively used in demography, public health, actuarial science, and ecology to analyze life expectancy, design health interventions,...
Assumptions of Survival Analysis
Survival models analyze the time until one or more events occur, such as death in biological organisms or failure in mechanical systems. These models are widely used across fields like medicine, biology, engineering, and public health to study time-to-event phenomena. To ensure accurate results, survival analysis relies on key assumptions and careful study design.
Truncation in Survival Analysis
Truncation in survival analysis refers to the exclusion of individuals or events from the dataset based on specific criteria related to the time of the event. This exclusion can happen in two primary forms: left truncation and right truncation.
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are observed.
Left truncation occurs when individuals who experienced the event of interest before a certain time are not included in the study. This is often due to a "delayed entry" into the study where only those who survive until a certain entry point are observed.
Censoring Survival Data
Survival analysis is a statistical method used to analyze time-to-event data, often employed in fields such as medicine, engineering, and social sciences. One of the key challenges in survival analysis is dealing with incomplete data, a phenomenon known as "censoring." Censoring occurs when the event of interest (such as death, relapse, or system failure) has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period or is otherwise unobservable, and it might have many different reasons...
Survival Tree
Survival trees are a non-parametric method used in survival analysis to model the relationship between a set of covariates and the time until an event of interest occurs, often referred to as the "time-to-event" or "survival time." This method is particularly useful when dealing with censored data, where the event has not occurred for some individuals by the end of the study period, or when the exact time of the event is unknown.
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a survival tree begins...
Building a Survival Tree
Constructing a survival tree begins...

