重新审视中层平流层循环变化的大规模模式
Ningning Tao1, Xiaosong Chen1,2, Fei Xie1
1School of Systems Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|April 26, 2025
概括
平流层循环的变化会影响天气. 南极循环显示了与太阳活动相关的11年周期,而北极显示了5-6年的周期,有助于气候预测.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 航空航天工程 航空航天工程
背景情况:
- 平流层循环变化显著影响热层天气和气候.
- 了解这些动态对于改善天气预报和指导平流层飞机操作至关重要.
- 尽管有进展,但对大规模的平流层循环模式的全面了解仍然难以捉摸,因为它的复杂性质.
研究的目的:
- 通过自身微态方法 (EMA) 分析大规模的平流层循环模式.
- 调查平流层区域风变化的时间特征,从1980-2022年.
- 确定平流层循环周期与太阳循环等外部因素之间的潜在联系.
主要方法:
- 利用ERA5再分析数据进行70-10hPa之间的区域风分析.
- 应用了自身微态方法 (EMA) 来识别主导的循环模式.
- 过高频元件以揭示潜在的周期性模式.
主要成果:
- 确定了三个主要模式:近两年振荡 (QBO) 强度,北极和南极平流层循环.
- 在南极循环中观察到一个显著的11年周期,可能是太阳能驱动的,在北极循环中观察到一个5-6年的周期.
- 南半球双极模式与南极循环相关,领先两个月. 开发了一个南极极地的预测模型.
结论:
- 平流层循环表现出明显的区域循环,南极洲容易受到太阳的影响,这是由于后来的极旋崩造成的.
- 鉴定的周期和相关性为大气可预测性提供了洞察力.
- 开发的线性模型表明,有可能预测南极极地的行为.
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