在股票市场的波动级联过程的波动定理的实证研究
1Department of Economics, Seijo University, 6-1-20, Seijo, Setagaya-ku, Tokyo 157-8511, Japan.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|April 26, 2025
概括
这项研究使用热力学模型来分析金融市场波动,发现伦敦和东京证券交易所之间的市场行为不同. 这项研究揭示了伦敦的因果波动级联,但在较长的时间尺度上,东京的反因果模式.
科学领域:
- 金融市场分析 金融市场分析
- 非平衡的热力学.
- 流理论是关于流的.
背景情况:
- 金融市场在波动中表现出间歇性,类似于发达动荡中观察到的现象.
- 动荡的间歇性是通过能量级联来解释的;类似的级联过程被建议用于金融时间序列.
- 了解波动级联对于描述金融市场动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 利用随机热力学,对金融市场的波动级联过程进行建模和研究.
- 将热力学概念 (温度,热量,工作,) 应用于金融市场分析.
- 通过伦敦证券交易所 (LSE) 和东京证券交易所 (TSE) 的股票市场数据来经验验证该模型.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个朗格温系统模型来描述金融市场动态和波动级联.
- 应用了随机热力学框架来分析单个波动级联轨迹.
- 使用波形分析实证分析了来自LSE和TSE的日内股票价格数据.
主要成果:
- 基于Langevin的模型成功地重现了跨时间尺度波动的经验分布.
- 波动级联轨迹满足了积分波动定理,表明与产生的一致性.
- 伦敦证券交易所的数据显示了因果波动级联 (较大到较小的时间尺度),与金融时间序列风格化的事实保持一致.
结论:
- 该研究表明,非平衡热力学在理解金融市场波动方面具有实用性.
- 经验发现揭示了波动级联的独特时间行为:LSE的因果关系,TSE的混合因果关系/反因果关系.
- 该研究强调了波动动态的跨市场差异,表明了各种潜在的市场机制.
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