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中国玉米进口贸易网络的风险传播和弹性

Jun Wu^1,2, Jing Zhu¹

¹College of Economics and Management, Nanjing Agricultural University, Nanjing 210095, China.

Foods (Basel, Switzerland)

|April 26, 2025

概括

中国中国中国中国.

科学领域:

农业经济学农业经济学
国际贸易国际贸易国际贸易
供应链管理供应链管理

背景情况:

全球玉米贸易至关重要,但面临地缘政治事件,气候变化和市场波动的风险.
作为主要的玉米进口国,中国历来集中从美国和乌克兰进口玉米,造成了进口集中风险.
目前的国际气候加剧了对中国玉米进口供应链的外部不确定性.

研究的目的:

检查2010-2023年中国玉米进口贸易网络的结构演变.
评估中国玉米进口系统对外部冲击的弹性,并确定风险传播途径.
确定玉米进口网络中涉及风险传播的关键国家.

主要方法:

利用跨越2010-2023年的双边贸易数据.
采用复杂网络建模和网络索引量化.
进行模拟分析以评估外部风险影响和追踪风险传播.

主要成果:

中国玉米进口贸易网络的弹性最近有所改善.
北半球/南半球种植周期的互补性和由于俄罗斯-乌克兰冲突而导致的贸易调整提高了风险抵抗力.
美国,法国,罗马尼亚和土耳其成为风险传播的关键中间节点.

结论:

中国应该向南半球国家多样化贸易,建立一个稳定的进口系统,利用补充资源.
建议与过境国家签订双边协议,并发展具有现代物流基础设施的储备中心.
区域全面经济伙伴关系 (RCEP) 等区域平台可以促进协调标准和数字贸易支持,而金融工具和供应链优化可以平衡风险.

关键词:

玉米贸易玉米贸易粮食安全粮食安全网络弹性网络弹性恢复能力的恢复能力.电阻容量电阻能力电阻容量风险传播风险的传播

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