哈萨克斯坦对高致病性禽流感的环境适应性使用欧亚亚洲疫情数据,2020-2024年
Asem Zh Abenova1, Yersyn Y Mukhanbetkaliyev1, Ablaikhan S Kadyrov1
1Faculty of Veterinary and Animal Husbandry Technology, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agro Technical Research University, Astana 010011, Kazakhstan.
Viruses
|April 26, 2025
概括
全球高度致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 疫情正在增加. 这项研究确定了推动哈萨克斯坦HPAI的关键环境和人口因素,并确定了需要加强监测的报告不足的地区.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 疾病生态学 疾病生态学
- 一个健康,一个健康.
背景情况:
- 高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) 对禽种群和全球健康构成重大威胁,自2020年以来,疫情明显增加.
- 了解HPAI传播和报告的驱动因素对于有效的疾病控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查与哈萨克斯坦2020-2024年HPAI (H5N1和H5N8) 疫情相关的环境和人口因素.
- 确定哈萨克斯坦可能报告不足的HPAI地区.
主要方法:
- 开发两个生态利基模型:环境因素的"发生模型"和人口因素的"报告模型".
- 使用邻国疫情数据进行模型培训,并与哈萨克斯坦的HPAI疫情数据进行验证.
主要成果:
- 这两种生态利基模型都很适合预测哈萨克斯坦的HPAI疫情.
- 在哈萨克斯坦西南部,在里海附近,确定了一个高发生率报告率的集群.
- 需要加强监视的额外地区包括帕夫洛达尔,北哈萨克斯坦,西哈萨克斯坦,吉齐罗尔达和东哈萨克斯坦.
结论:
- 生态利基建模对于了解哈萨克斯坦HPAI分布和报告模式是有效的.
- 建议在确定的高风险和报告不足的地区加强有针对性的监测,以改善HPAI的预防和控制.
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