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1974年至2024年中国疫苗接种扩大计划的健康影响和经济评估:一项建模研究

Chaofan Wang¹, Xiaozhen Lai², Kaja Abbas³

¹School of Public Health, Peking University, Beijing, China; Peking University Health Science Center-Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention Joint Center for Vaccine Economics, Peking University, Beijing, China; China Center for Health Development Studies, Peking University, Beijing, China.

The Lancet. Public health

|April 26, 2025

概括

中国扩大疫苗接种计划 (EPI) 在过去50年中避免了数百万病例和死亡. 这种疫苗接种计划显示出显著的健康和经济效益,投资回报率高.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
卫生经济学卫生经济学

背景情况:

世界卫生组织于1974年建立的免疫扩展计划 (EPI) 是一个关键的全球公共卫生倡议.
中国的EPI计划显著影响全球六分之一以上的人口,为八种必需的常规疫苗提供高覆盖率.

研究的目的:

量化中国扩大疫苗接种计划 (EPI) 在50年 (1974-2024) 的健康和经济影响.

主要方法:

使用数学建模来评估八种常规疫苗对主要病原体的影响.
在一个反事实情景 (没有疫苗接种) 和当前的疫苗接种策略之间进行了比较分析.
通过避免病例,死亡和根据残疾调整的寿命年 (DALYs) 来衡量健康结果,而通过成本效益分析来评估经济结果.

主要成果:

据估计,EPI计划避免了约70300万例病例和248万例死亡 (日历年方法) 或7070万例病例和7010万例死亡 (出生队列方法).
根据残疾调整的生命年 (DALYs) 估计为1.6亿 (日历年) 或2.79亿 (出生队列).
社会效益成本比率计算为19.48,表明接种疫苗投资带来了相当大的经济回报.

结论:

中国的EPI为健康和经济带来了巨大的好处,为全球免疫成功做出了贡献.
建议继续投资和扩大疫苗接种计划,以实现中国和全球持续的公共卫生成果.

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