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贝叶斯优化的递归机器学习用于预测悬浮沉积物运输中人类诱导的变化
Soumya Kundu1, Somil Swarnkar2, Akshay Agarwal3
1Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, IISER Bhopal, Madhya Pradesh, Bhopal, Pin - 462066, India.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|April 26, 2025
概括
像水建设这样的人类活动显著减少了河流沉积物负载,影响了水资源和生态系统. 机器学习模型,特别是额外的树回归器,在预测悬浮沉积物负载方面表现出高准确性.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 水文学的水文学
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
- 机器学习应用 机器学习应用
背景情况:
- 悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL) 是河流健康,形态和水资源管理的关键指标.
- 人为因素,包括水建设和土地利用变化,显著影响河流沉积物的动态.
- 历史数据分析对于理解SSL及其驱动器的长期趋势至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析戈达瓦里河流域悬浮沉积物负载 (SSL) 的历史变化.
- 评估机器学习 (ML) 模型在预测SSL方面的有效性.
- 了解人类活动对沉积物运输模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 历史SSL数据 (1969-2020年) 分为1990年以前和1990年之后的时期.
- 使用实证累积分布函数 (ECDF) 对SSL趋势,季节分布和运输模式的统计分析.
- 使用R2,RMSE和MAE指标开发和评估基于树木的ML模型 (额外树木回归器,随机森林回归器,梯度增强回归器).
主要成果:
- 1990年以后,由于人类干预,平均年SSL的显著下降 (从136.85万降至62.38万) 被观察到.
- 虽然季节性SSL分布保持一致 (季风期间约73%),但SSL中位数和峰值值下降,表明沉积物可用性减少.
- 额外树木回归器 (ETR) 模型实现了最高的预测准确性 (R2=0.97训练,0.9测试),优于其他ML模型.
结论:
- 人类的改造已经大大改变了戈达瓦里河流域的沉积物运输动态.
- 集结基于树的ML模型,特别是ETR,为SSL预测提供了强大而准确的方法.
- 这些发现为有效的流域管理和在不断变化的水文条件下可持续的沉积物建模提供了关键的见解.
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