关于社会因素的多国证据,应包括在能源转型建模中
Vivien Fisch-Romito1,2, Marc Jaxa-Rozen1,3, Xin Wen1
1Renewable Energy Systems Group, Section of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Geneva, Switzerland.
概括
纳入公众接受和投资风险等社会因素可以显著改善能源转型模型. 这项研究提供了一种选择关键社会要素的方法,以提高未来能源路径预测的准确性.
科学领域:
- 能源系统分析 能源系统分析
- 社会变革的动态 社会变革的动态
- 计算社会科学 计算社会科学
背景情况:
- 综合评估和能源系统模型难以纳入社会转型动态.
- 实证证据很少,社会因素提高了模型的相关性以及如何.
研究的目的:
- 系统地评估社会因素对能源转型模型性能的影响.
- 确定提高模拟能源路径准确性的关键社会因素.
主要方法:
- 将六个社会因素纳入一个开源的国家电力系统过渡模拟模型中.
- 该模型在31个欧洲国家应用,使用从1990年到2019年的后预测.
- 量化每个社会因素所带来的绩效改进.
主要成果:
- 纳入精心挑选的社会因素,在建模的装机容量中,后预测性能提高了高达27%.
- 公众接受,投资风险和基础设施锁定被确定为最具影响力的因素.
- 该研究表明,将社会经济因素纳入能源系统模型的好处.
结论:
- 选择社会因素的系统方法可以显著提高能源转型模型的相关性和准确性.
- 这些发现为更强大,更现实的能源路径建模提供了基础.
- 这项研究有助于为可持续能源未来做出更明智的决策.
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