燃料电池技术在中国的成本轨迹
Xue Wang1,2, Li-Wei Fan1,2, Hongyan Zhang1,2
1School of Economics and Management & Institute of Energy Economics and Policy, China University of Petroleum (East China), Qingdao 266580, China.
iScience
|April 28, 2025
概括
降低燃料电池成本是绿色经济的关键. 这项研究预测,在2031年之后,成本将下降到1000元/千瓦以下,这是由创新和学习实践驱动的.
科学领域:
- 能源科学 能源科学
- 材料科学 材料科学 材料科学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 燃料电池的广泛采用对于脱碳能源系统至关重要.
- 降低燃料电池技术的成本是经济增长的关键障碍.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定燃料电池技术的成本轨迹.
- 分析不同阶段的技术学习机制.
- 预测未来的成本降低及其影响因素.
主要方法:
- 利用多阶段的学习曲线模型来分析降低成本.
- 嵌入式创新和生产学习机制.
- 对气生产技术和成本驱动因素进行了场景分析.
主要成果:
- 确定了通过研究学习 (当前) 和通过行动学习 (长期) 的不同角色.
- 预计燃料电池的长期学习率为14%.
- 预计2031年后系统成本将降至1000元/千瓦以下.
结论:
- 技术学习,特别是通过行动学习,对于未来的成本降低至关重要.
- 气生产技术对整体成本轨迹有重大影响.
- 这些发现为政策制定提供了关键的见解,以加速经济.
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