从2022年北美两次疫情的基因组数据推断D68肠道病毒传播动态
Martin Grunnill1,2, Alireza Eshaghi1, Lambodhar Damodaran3
1Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
Npj viruses
|April 28, 2025
概括
加拿大和美国的D68型肠病毒 (EV-D68) 疫情显示出高传染性,感染持续时间估计. 缓解COVID-19限制可能促进了EV-D68的传播,突显了基因组监测的价值.
科学领域:
- 病毒学 病毒学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 基因组学就是基因组学.
背景情况:
- 肠道病毒D68 (EV-D68) 是儿童的重要呼吸道病原体.
- 一个著名的EV-D68疫情发生在加拿大安大略省,从2022年8月到10月.
- 遗传分析显示,安大略省的疫情与美国马里兰州的同时爆发的疫情之间存在相似之处.
研究的目的:
- 分析在安大略省和马里兰州发生的EV-D68疫情的遗传关系.
- 估计关键的流行病学参数,包括可传播性 (R_t) 和感染持续时间.
- 调查COVID-19社会限制放宽对EV-D68传播的潜在影响.
主要方法:
- 来自EV-D68爆发的全基因组序列 (WGS) 的家族遗传学分析.
- 贝叶斯的植物动力学建模来估计时间变化的繁殖数 (R_t) 和感染持续时间.
- 使用报告病例数据,将植物动力学估计与EpiEstim模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 估计的高中值峰值R_t值为2.70在安大略省和2.10在马里兰州.
- 据估计,EV-D68的中位感染持续时间为7.94天 (安大略省) 和10.8天 (马里兰州).
- EV-D68出现的时间恰逢COVID-19社会接触限制的放松.
结论:
- 植物动力学建模为EV-D68的传染性和感染持续时间提供了可靠的估计.
- 非药物干预措施的放松可能有助于EV-D68爆发的复苏.
- 基因组监测和植物动力学方法对于公共卫生和疫情描述至关重要.
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