使用流行病数据对自愿接种疫苗行为的信息进行人体反应建模
Bruno Buonomo1, Rossella Della Marca1, Manalebish Debalike Asfaw2
1Department of Mathematics and Applications, University of Naples Federico Ⅱ, via Cintia, Naples, I-80126, Italy.
Mathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE
|April 29, 2025
概括
霍林II型功能反应准确地模拟了受疾病信息和谣言影响的疫苗接种行为,在脑膜炎脑膜炎模型中表现优于其他类型. 这一发现有助于理解疾病动态和公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 社会流行病学社会流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 霍林的功能反应是人口动态的关键.
- 了解疫苗接种行为对于疾病控制至关重要.
- 信息和谣言显著影响公共卫生决策.
研究的目的:
- 评估霍林功能反应,以建模受信息影响的疫苗接种行为.
- 将这些模型应用于脑膜炎的社会流行病学背景.
- 评估不同Holling类型对模型准确性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用霍林格函数来表示依赖信息的疫苗接种率.
- 开发了一种针对脑膜炎球菌脑膜炎的社会流行病学模型.
- 使用尼日利亚疫情数据估计的参数.
- 数字评估了霍林格函数对模型解决方案的影响.
主要成果:
- 霍林的I型和III型函数在参数估计中显示出显著的不准确性.
- 霍林格II型功能性准确复制的流行病学数据.
- 使用霍林格II型函数得到了合理的信息参数值.
- 霍林 II 型函数表明信息接触的速率恒定,信息处理时间不可忽视.
结论:
- 霍林II型函数最适合在信息影响下建模疫苗接种行为.
- 该模型提供了关于疾病传播动态和干预策略的见解.
- 这些发现对公共卫生政策和疫情期间的风险传播有影响.
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