介绍WBE病例估计:公共卫生从业人员的实用工具集
Gabriel K Innes1, Andrew N Patton1, Sarah M Prasek2
1Yuma Center of Excellence for Desert Agriculture (YCEDA), University of Arizona, 6425 W. 8th St., Yuma, AZ 85364, USA.
The Science of the total environment
|April 29, 2025
概括
废水监测可以追踪疾病趋势,但分析需要专业知识. 这项研究提供了一个低资源的工具包,可以预测废水中的COVID-19病例,帮助公共卫生工作.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 废水数据提供了有关疾病动态的见解,例如发病率和流行率.
- 分析废水数据通常需要超出入门级流行病学家的高级专业知识.
- 从废水中预测建模可以支持公共卫生决策.
研究的目的:
- 使用废水数据预测COVID-19病例.
- 为当地公共卫生管辖区开发一个可定制,低资源的工具包.
- 评估基于废水的流行病学不同的建模方法.
主要方法:
- 利用文献衍生的病毒流失和便生产率.
- 合并市的流量数据.
- 分析了废水衍生的病毒度,以预测COVID-19感染.
- 评估了四种不同的预测模型,包括梯度增强决策树和确定性计算.
主要成果:
- 概率梯度增强决策树模型显示了最高的准确性 (MAE 0.09%-0.25%).
- 一个更简单的确定性计算模型的表现几乎一样好 (MAE 1.2%).
- 一种概率方法产生了最不准确的结果 (MAE 3.6%).
结论:
- 公共卫生管辖区可以使用各种模型来预测废水中的传染病病例.
- 模型的选择应考虑数据的可用性,技术专长和社区的特定需求.
- 调整模型以适应当地环境对于有效的基于废水的流行病学至关重要.
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