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Updated: May 14, 2025

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排水演变对气候变化的反应:在中国黄河河头地区的案例研究,中国

Jun Mei¹, Bin Yong², Yi Lyu¹

¹The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China; College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China.

Journal of environmental management

|April 29, 2025

概括

1990年以后,气候变化显著减少了黄河的下水量,影响了洪水峰值. 未来的预测表明,这一重要水源地区的持续下降和变异性增加.

科学领域:

水文和气候科学水文和气候科学
水资源管理水资源的管理.

背景情况:

黄河的头水区 (HAYR) 对于盆地流水流量至关重要.
近几十年来,HAYR排水模式发生了重大变化,影响了洪水分布.
7月和9月的独特双重洪水峰值 (DFP) 尤其受到影响.

研究的目的:

分析 HAYR. 的历史流水演变.
在气候变化场景下预测未来的下水变化.
量化气候变化和人类活动对流水的影响.

主要方法:

使用了三个降水数据集 (CHM_PRE,CMFD,TPHiPr) 来驱动VIC陆地表面水文模型.
选择CHM_PRE驱动的VIC作为表现最好的模拟模式.
采用多源数据分析和水文模拟进行综合评估.

主要成果:

气候变化是1990年后排水减少的主要驱动因素 (81.14%),人类活动贡献了18.86%.
气候变化减少了峰值排放,并改变了洪水峰值时间 (主要峰值较早,次要峰值较晚).
未来的预测表明,随着~40年的周期性和年间和年内变化的增加,流动的趋势正在下降.

结论:

气候变化是影响最近HAYR流量变化的主要因素.
未来的排水可能会呈现出降低的大小,改变时间和更高的可变性.
研究结果支持全球变化下的HAYR优化水资源分配和决策.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化双重的洪水峰是双重的洪水峰.黄河的头水区黄河的头水区.排水过程的演化过程

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