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关于底层表面变化对城市化流域下水产生的影响的研究
Yunqiu Jiang1, Lichun Wang2, Tianning Xie1
1School of Water Conservancy and Transportation, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, 450001, China.
Scientific reports
|April 29, 2025
概括
本研究介绍了一种基于电网的流水生成模型 (GRGM) 用于城市洪水预测. 该GRGM准确地预测了排水量,显示城市化显著增加了地表排水量,影响了洪水风险.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 城市规划 城市规划
背景情况:
- 城市化流域在协调洪水预测方面面临挑战.
- 现有的模型可能无法完全捕捉在不断变化的城市景观中排水生成的复杂性.
- 了解排水成分对于有效的洪水风险管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 提出一个新的框架来区分城镇化流域的下水组成部分.
- 整合基于电网的流量生成模型 (GRGM),考虑到空间异质性.
- 分析流水组成部分的时空演变及其与土地利用变化的相关性.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用基于电网的排水生成模型 (GRGM).
- 对垂直空间异质性的分析 (土壤类型,土地利用,坡度).
- 在Jialu河流域观察到的11个降雨-流水事件中测试GRGM.
主要成果:
- 该GRGM的准确性高于霍顿透 (HI) 模型,相对误差降低了27.76%.
- 1980年至2020年期间,市中心地区的过度地表排水 (Rs) 从22%增加到67%.
- 观察到大量的土地使用变化,包括农田减少和建筑用地扩张,与建筑用地有很强的相关性 (r > 0.93).
结论:
- GRGM提供了一个更准确的方法,用于在城市化地区对冲流量产生建模.
- 城市化和相关的土地利用变化大大增加了地表下水和潜在的洪水风险.
- 这些发现为城市流域的协调防洪和减少灾害战略提供了科学基础.
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