时间序列分析用于预测新生儿重症监护病房人口普查和新生儿死亡率
Hosein Dalili1, Mamak Shariat2, Leyla Sahebi3
1Maternal-Fetal and Neonatal Research Center, Family Health Research Institute, Imam Khomeini Hospital Complex, Tehran University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
BMC pediatrics
|April 29, 2025
概括
这项研究分析了新生儿重症监护室 (NICU) 的数据,发现更长的住院时间与死亡率的增加有关. 像ARIMA和SARIMA这样的先进预测模型显示出优化NICU资源规划和改善婴儿结果的前景.
科学领域:
- 新生儿科学 新生儿科学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 医疗保健管理的管理
背景情况:
- 分析了七年的回顾性新生儿重症监护室 (NICU) 数据 (2016年3月 - 2022年12月).
- 包括每日人口普查,住院日数和7,227名婴儿的死亡率.
- 解决了NICU资源分配中的预测建模需求.
研究的目的:
- 预测NICU人口普查数量,住院时间和死亡率比例.
- 探索NICU人口普查,住院时间和死亡率之间的关系.
- 评估时间序列模型对NICU管理的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 使用自动回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 和季节性ARIMA (SARIMA) 模型进行时间序列预测.
- 应用回归分析以确定关键NICU变量之间的相关性.
- 分析了七年的每日NICU数据.
主要成果:
- 死亡率比例在2017年达到9.94%的峰值,观察到整体下降趋势.
- 平均住院时间为12.42天,死亡和幸存的新生儿之间存在显著差异.
- 较长的住院时间与增加的死亡率 (B=0.339,P=0.018) 有正相关性,与住院时间 (-2.58天,P<0.001) 有反向相关性.
- 婴儿重症监护室的人口普查数据显示季节性模式,在冬季达到顶峰.
结论:
- 季节性变化会影响NICU的入院人数和住院时间,冬季的入院人数最高,住院时间最短.
- 长时间住院与较高的死亡率有关.
- ARIMA和SARIMA模型表现出强大的预测能力,强调它们在新生急症监护室资源规划中的实用性,以改善患者的治疗结果.
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