对日本脑炎病毒传播模型的范围审查
Troy A Laidlow1,2, Erin S Johnston3, Ruth N Zadoks1,2
1Sydney School of Veterinary Science, Faculty of Science, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, New South Wales, Australia.
Transboundary and emerging diseases
|April 30, 2025
概括
这次对日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 传播模型的审查发现,大多数是理论性的,缺乏现实世界的数据. 需要进一步的研究来开发应用模型,以更好地控制风险人群中的JEV.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 导致全球显著的死亡率,主要是东南亚和西太平洋地区的儿童.
- 传播受到非生物因素的影响,涉及复杂的宿主-载体相互作用.
- 数学模型对于理解疾病动态和告知控制策略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查和分析现有的日本脑炎病毒 (JEV) 传播模型.
- 确定这些模型的特征,应用和局限性.
- 为了指导未来开发更有效的JEV传动模型.
主要方法:
- 根据PRISMA-ScR方法进行了指导范围审查.
- 搜索了主要的科学数据库 (PubMed,Scopus,科学网等) 对于经过同行评审的JEV传动模型.
- 从1975年至2023年间发表的29个符合条件的模型中提取数据.
主要成果:
- 大多数模型 (72%) 是确定性的,使用普通微分方程.
- 包括3个宿主种群 (人类,蚊子,猪) 的中位数.
- 只有10个模型被应用并与现场数据验证,通常来自有限的地理区域.
结论:
- 存在重大局限性,包括JEV流行病学,载体生物学和控制策略影响的知识差距.
- 缺乏应用和验证的模型阻碍了有效的JEV预测和控制.
- 进一步的研究和应用模型的开发对于保护处于风险的人类和动物种群至关重要.
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