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对为跨境动物疾病紧急情况准备国家兽医服务的成本效益分析
William Gilbert1, David Adamson2, Daniel Donachie3
1Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
Transboundary and emerging diseases
|April 30, 2025
概括
投资国家兽医服务 (VS) 为动物疾病紧急情况提供经济效益,特别是在高牲畜数量和密集农业的情况下. 准备计划对于减轻风险和确保经济福利至关重要.
科学领域:
- 兽医流行病学 兽医流行病学
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 对公共卫生干预措施的经济分析
背景情况:
- 在牲畜中释放病原体对公众健康,粮食安全和经济构成风险.
- 国家兽医服务 (VS) 对于减轻动物疾病紧急情况至关重要.
- 疾病爆发的时间和地点的不确定性使经济决策对准备的决策变得复杂.
研究的目的:
- 检查国家兽医部门为各种动物疾病紧急情况做好准备的成本和收益.
- 制定一个框架来评估对牲畜疾病的应急准备的投资.
主要方法:
- 利用了世界动物卫生组织在非洲和东南亚的VS项目表现数据.
- 在不确定性下的疾病影响模型中采用了状态依赖的方法.
- 根据疾病发生概率和制成功计算的平衡投资边界.
主要成果:
- 人均牲畜数量增加和生产强化增加与投资破率更高的可能性相关.
- 该研究量化了在不确定的场景中准备的好处.
- 确定了影响VS应急准备经济可行性的关键因素.
结论:
- 对动物疾病紧急情况的准备投资可以从经济上获益,特别是在高密度畜牧系统中.
- 这些发现支持制定政策,以加强低收入国家对牲畜疾病的应急响应.
- 评估准备投资的结构化方法对于优化资源配置至关重要.
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