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在孟加拉国高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) H5N1的流行病学和进化动态

Ariful Islam^1,2, Tasnim Ara^1,3, Emama Amin^1,3

¹EcoHealth Alliance, New York, NY 10018, USA.

Transboundary and emerging diseases

|April 30, 2025

概括

在孟加拉国,高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) H5N1疫情呈现出明显的冬季高峰,并聚集在达卡周围. 疫苗接种减少了疫情,但病毒仍然存在,需要持续的监测和生物安全监测.

科学领域:

兽医流行病学兽医流行病学
分子遗传学分子遗传学
疾病生态学疾病生态学

背景情况:

了解疾病传播是有效预防和控制策略的关键.
高致病性禽流感 (HPAI) H5N1对家禽和潜在的公共健康构成重大威胁.

研究的目的:

描述孟加拉国HPAI H5N1疫情的流行病特征和时空动态.
分析H5N1类多样性和植物动力学随着时间的推移和宿主物种的跨越.
为有针对性的干预确定影响H5N1传播的关键领域和因素.

主要方法:

使用莫兰的I,吉瑞的C,盖蒂斯-奥尔德Gi*和时空变换模型进行时空分析.
贝叶斯系遗传学分析,以构建一个时间尺度的最大分类可信度 (MCC) 树.
分析H5N1疫情数据,宿主物种和从2007年到2020年的类进化.

主要成果:

确定了9次HPAI H5N1流行病浪潮,在冬季始终达到顶峰.
在达卡和周边地区观察到大量的H5N1疫情集群和热点.
接种疫苗后,HPAI H5N1发病率和家禽死亡率下降,但病毒循环仍然存在,其中克拉德2.3.2.1a及其重组物占主导地位.

结论:

时空模式和植物动力学对于有针对性的HPAI控制至关重要.
建议在高优先级地区加强对生物安全和疾病记录的监测.
评估疫苗的有效性对于加强孟加拉国HPAI疫情控制至关重要.

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