一个理论框架来量化个人和人口之间扩大抗生素使用的利益之间的权衡
Cormac R LaPrete1, Sharia M Ahmed2, Damon J A Toth2
1Department of Mathematics, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA.
Bulletin of mathematical biology
|April 30, 2025
概括
扩大对中度感染的抗生素治疗可以阻止疾病爆发并减少整体抗生素使用. 这一策略有助于打击抗生素耐药性,并在流行病期间改善公共卫生.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 传染病的动态传染病的动态.
背景情况:
- 在疫情爆发期间使用抗生素可以平衡个人治疗需求与人口层面的风险,如耐药性.
- 广泛使用抗生素传统上与增加的选择性压力有关,促进耐药性.
研究的目的:
- 探索扩大抗生素治疗对个人和人口健康都有好处的情景.
- 开发一个数学框架来评估扩展治疗对疫情动态的影响,以霍乱为案例研究.
主要方法:
- 数学建模用于分析不同治疗策略下的疫情动态.
- 降低传播和总抗生素剂量管理的条件的导出.
- 疫情预防值 (OPT) 和剂量利用值 (DUT) 的识别.
主要成果:
- 扩展治疗可以减少传播和总数的抗生素剂量管理.
- 对于霍乱,治疗中度感染可以阻止疫情爆发,如果未经治疗的生殖数量为<1.42.
- 如果未经治疗的生殖数量小于1.53.3,则使用较少的总抗生素剂量.
结论:
- 在某些情况下,将治疗扩展到中度感染可以减少疾病传播和选择性抗药压力.
- 优化治疗策略可以平衡公共卫生效益与抗生素管理.
- 这些发现适用于霍乱以外的各种病原体和疫情情情景.
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