副作用可能包括: 后果 忽视生成解决方案的后果
Christopher Rodriguez1, Daniel M Oppenheimer1
1Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America.
PloS one
|April 30, 2025
概括
解决问题的人往往会忽视因焦点主义而导致的负面后果,这是一种认知偏见. 这种"忽视后果"意味着除非明确考虑,否则会忽视意外结果,影响战略和政策.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 策略往往会产生意想不到的负面后果.
- 这些可预见的结果在战略制定和评估过程中经常被忽视.
- 这种忽视源于认知偏见,而不是知识缺陷.
研究的目的:
- 介绍并定义"后果忽视",一种认知偏见.
- 解释焦点主义如何有助于忽视下游效应.
- 提供经验证据证明存在后果忽视.
主要方法:
- 进行了四项实证研究.
- 参与者对策略进行了评估,一些人被要求考虑积极和消极的后果.
- 收集行为数据以评估战略评估和后果生成.
主要成果:
- 当被要求考虑负面结果时,个人对策略的评价更为负面.
- 这表明,负面影响在决策中并没有固有的权重.
- 对负面结果的明确关注会影响战略的认知.
结论:
- 后果疏忽是一种影响问题解决的显著认知偏见.
- 这种偏见对政策制定,商业战略和一般决策产生了广泛的影响.
- 未来的研究应该探索干预措施,以减轻后果的忽视.
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