在关键条件下避免灭绝的门生育率
Diane Carmeliza N Cuaresma1,2, Hiromu Ito3, Hiroaki Arima3
1Graduate School of Science and Technology, Shizuoka University, Shizuoka, Japan.
PloS one
|April 30, 2025
概括
发达国家面临着低生育率的危机. 为了避免人口灭绝,生育率必须超过2.7,考虑到随机的人口变化,而不仅仅是传统的2.1替代水平生育率.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
背景情况:
- 发达国家正在经历生育率的显著下降.
- 每名妇女的常规替代水平生育率 (RLF) 为2.1个孩子,不考虑人口随机性.
- 人口随机性,即后代数量的随机变化,对于人口稳定至关重要,特别是在较小的人口中.
研究的目的:
- 调查性繁殖种群中生育率的灭绝门.
- 确定必要的生育率以抵消人口随机性带来的灭绝风险.
- 分析性别比例对灭绝门的影响.
主要方法:
- 在性繁殖人口中建模人口随机性.
- 计算灭绝门生育率的方法.
- 模拟女性偏向性比对人口持久性的影响.
主要成果:
- 该研究表明,为了防止人口灭绝,每名妇女所需的生育率超过2.7个孩子.
- 人口随机性显著影响人口的生存能力,挑战2.1 RLF的充分性.
- 发现偏向女性的性别比率降低了灭绝门.
结论:
- 发达国家目前的生育率低于计算的值,这表明大多数家族系的最终灭绝.
- 在严峻的条件下对女性有偏见的出生可能是避免灭绝的进化策略.
- 重新考虑人口替代水平是必要的,将随机效应纳入准确的人口预测.
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