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通过使用两个不同的气候数据集来确定旅游业对气候变化的暴露:斯洛文尼亚三个气候不同地点的情况
Tjaša Pogačar1, Rok Kuk2, Katja Kokot3
1Biotechnical Faculty, University of Ljubljana, Jamnikarjeva 101, 1000, Ljubljana, Slovenia. tjasa.pogacar@bf.uni-lj.si.
International journal of biometeorology
|April 30, 2025
概括
斯洛文尼亚的旅游业面临着气候变化的影响,不同地区的影响各不相同. 考虑到数据不确定性和区域气候脆弱性,适应计划对于可持续旅游至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 旅游学研究 旅游学研究
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球旅游业构成重大风险.
- 了解区域气候脆弱性是适应的关键.
- 斯洛文尼亚多样化的气候区带来了独特的旅游挑战.
研究的目的:
- 评估斯洛文尼亚旅游业对气候变化的影响.
- 分析旅游业气候适应性的历史趋势和未来预测.
- 为斯洛文尼亚旅游业的气候适应战略提供指导.
主要方法:
- 分析来自哥白尼号气候数据存储 (CDS) 和斯洛文尼亚环境局 (ARSO) 的气候数据.
- 检查三个不同的气候区:地中海以下,亚大陆和丘陵地区.
- 使用气候指数 (CIT: 3S,HCI:城市) 和关键变量 (炎热的日子,降水,雪地).
主要成果:
- 地中海以下地区:季节可能会延长,但存在热浪和水资源短缺的风险.
- 亚阿尔卑斯山区:预计降雪覆盖将影响冬季旅游和滑雪胜地.
- 亚洲地区:可能延长户外活动季节,但存在热应激和极端天气的风险.
结论:
- 气候指标提供了洞察力,但由于潜在的过度简化和数据差异,需要仔细解释.
- 气候预测,特别是雪的预测,涉及固有的不确定性,需要组合建模.
- 该研究为斯洛文尼亚旅游业的气候变化适应计划提供了全面的理解.
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