适应和基因流动不足以在气候变化下拯救山地植物
Jill T Anderson1, Megan L DeMarche2, Derek A Denney2
1Department of Genetics and Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 1, 2025
概括
气候变化通过限制适应性和遗传多样性来威胁植物种群. 将进化过程纳入预测对于预测物种的持续性至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 进化生物学
- 气候变化科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化影响了当地人口动态,地理分布和物种持续存在.
- 基因流和适应对于拯救日益减少的种群至关重要,但经常被排除在生态预测之外.
- 了解生态进化动态对于预测物种对环境变化的反应至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候场景下建模"严格的"的生态进化动态.
- 评估基因流动和适应在气候变化下人口持久性的作用.
- 与生态进化模型相比,评估物种分布模型的预测能力.
主要方法:
- 在9年的时间里,在5个普通花园中,利用了102,272个植物移植的健康数据.
- 在工业化前,当代和预测的气候条件下建模生态进化动态.
- 纳入基因组数据以评估空间基因流动,并将模型输出与物种分布模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 气候变化对当地适应的人口产生负面影响,并减少人口增长率的基因型变化.
- 上坡迁移可能有利于高海拔群体,但自然基因流动在空间上是有限的.
- 种类分布模型不准确地预测当前的动态,并可能高估温和排放下的持久性.
结论:
- 在预计的气候变化下, *Boechera stricta* 的适应能力有限.
- 生态进化模型优于物种分布模型来预测物种持续存在.
- 将进化过程纳入生态预测对于准确的气候变化影响评估至关重要.
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