一种新的方法来估计中国县级的热门值
Qian Yin1, Jinfeng Wang2,3, Jiayi Zhou2
1State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Nature Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, A11, Datun Road, Chaoyang District, Beijing, China. yinq@lreis.ac.cn.
BMC public health
|May 1, 2025
概括
这项研究引入了一种新的方法,根据年温度频率来确定热门值,从而改善全球热相关死亡风险评估. 研究结果显示,高温频率与较低的死亡风险相关,有助于适应策略.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 高温带来重大风险,导致与热有关的死亡率.
- 当前的热门定义往往忽略了区域适应,并依赖于数据丰富的区域.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的,普遍适用的方法来定义热值.
- 评估温度模式与与热有关的死亡风险之间的关系.
- 为了解释人类适应不同气候的热量.
主要方法:
- 分析了36个不同中国地区的温度死亡率关系.
- 在年度温度频率 (AFT) 和热死亡的相对风险 (RR) 之间建立了功率函数关系.
- 开发了一种使用AFT的高分辨率热值测绘方法,适应缺乏死亡率数据的地点.
主要成果:
- 在AFT和RR之间发现了显著的功率函数关系 (调整后R2=0.74).
- 在中国各地的县级地图上绘制了热门值,使用来自2405个站的每日温度时间序列.
- 增加的AFT与减少的RR相对应,例如,1天/年AFT显示RR~1.4,而10天/年AFT显示RR~1.05.
结论:
- 这项研究为人类适应高温的机制提供了新的见解.
- 拟议的方法提供了一个可扩展的方法来确定热门值,这对于全球气候变化适应战略至关重要.
- 这项研究增强了对与热有关的死亡率模式和缓解策略的理解.
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