使用三种作物模型,对斯里兰卡历史大米产量的气候影响归因
A S Karunaratne1, Chaogejilatu2, Toshichika Iizumi2
1Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka, 70140, Belihuloya, Sri Lanka. ashas@agri.sab.ac.lk.
Scientific reports
|May 2, 2025
概括
气候变化已经减少了斯里兰卡的平均大米产量. 虽然对像2017年这样的特定低收益事件的影响尚不确定,但这项研究强调了对气候适应性食品系统的需求.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 斯里兰卡的米生产面临国家粮食安全的威胁,原因是低产量事件.
- 极端气候事件是主要的驱动因素,但人类引起的气候变化的作用仍然是一个开放的问题.
研究的目的:
- 量化气候变化对斯里兰卡平均水产量和特定低产事件的影响.
- 用多种作物模型分析气候变化对2017年低产量事件的贡献.
主要方法:
- 使用事实和反事实气候模型模拟进行影响归因分析.
- 将气候数据输入三个基于过程的作物模型:DSSAT,APSIM和CYGMA.
- 使用多模型整体平均值 (MME) 进行可靠的分析.
主要成果:
- 所有作物模型都表明,气候变化已经降低了4.99%至0.20%的平均水产量.
- 气候变化对2017年低收益事件的影响在模型中显示出混合的结果,但MME检测到对Yala季节的显著负面影响.
- 农作物模型中的不确定性使得在本世纪中叶之前无法对低产量事件的未来频率和严重性进行确的预测.
结论:
- 气候变化对斯里兰卡的平均水产量产生了负面影响.
- 由于模型的不确定性,将特定的低收益事件归因于气候变化需要进一步调查.
- 通过损失和损害等机制,改善影响归因对于开发气候适应性农业食品系统至关重要,特别是在低收入国家.
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