时间周期性的非局部分散流行病模型的传播动态,延迟和疫苗接种
Xiao Zhang1, Shi-Liang Wu2, Lan Zou3
1School of Mathematics and Statistics, Xidian University, Xi'an, 710071, Shaanxi, People's Republic of China.
Journal of mathematical biology
|May 3, 2025
概括
这项研究分析了流行病传播动态,使用与疫苗接种相关的周期性非局部分散模型. 疫苗的有效性和延迟减缓了疾病的传播,而传染性扩散和非局部性则加速了它.
科学领域:
- 数学生物学 数学生物学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 动态系统 动态系统
背景情况:
- 疫苗接种对于传染病控制至关重要.
- 了解流行病传播动态对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 时间周期性的非局部分散模型为复杂的疾病传播提供了洞察力.
研究的目的:
- 调查一个时间周期性的非局部分散流行病模型与延迟和疫苗接种的传播动态.
- 确定影响流行病传播速度的因素.
- 分析模型参数对疾病传播的影响.
主要方法:
- 确定时间周期移动波的传播速度和存在.
- 推导出超临界和临界时间周期移动波的存在.
- 使用数值模拟来探索延迟和其他参数的影响.
主要成果:
- 传播速度与周期性移动波的最小波速一致.
- 延迟和疫苗接种有效性降低了传播速度;传染性扩散和非局部性增加了它.
- 延迟在传播速度中引入了振荡行为,随着时间的推移汇聚到一个常数.
结论:
- 传播速度对疫苗接种效率比疫苗接种率更为敏感.
- 模型参数如延迟,周期性,非局部性和疫苗接种显著影响流行病的传播.
- 该研究为分析复杂的流行病模型提供了一个框架.
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