模拟响应的个人疫苗接种决策与SARS-CoV-2的传播之间的相互作用
Karina Wallrafen-Sam1, Maria Garcia Quesada2, Benjamin A Lopman2
1Life & Medical Sciences Institute (LIMES) and Bonn Center for Mathematical Life Sciences, University of Bonn, Bonn, Germany; Department of Epidemiology, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, Atlanta, GA, USA.
解决疫苗犹的社区级干预措施可以增加COVID-19疫苗接种率并减少SARS-CoV-2的发生率. 反应式推广策略可能提供有限的短期效益,强调需要积极主动,预测性干预.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算建模 计算建模
背景情况:
- 对于COVID-19疫苗的犹显著阻碍了疫苗接种.
- 针对疫苗犹症在疾病预防方面的干预措施的有效性仍然不清楚.
- 结合疫苗决策心理学的流行病模型可以为当前和未来的流行病提供干预策略.
研究的目的:
- 评估针对疫苗犹的干预措施对COVID-19疫苗接种和疾病预防的影响.
- 模拟社会心理因素对疫情期间疫苗接种决策的影响.
主要方法:
- 基于网络和代理的SARS-CoV-2传播模型与社会心理学疫苗接种决策模型相结合.
- 该模型模拟了疫苗副作用,突破性感染和住院率如何影响接种疫苗的意愿.
- 使用美国佐治亚州COVID-19流行病数据 (2021年1月至2022年8月) 进行参数化和校准场景.
主要成果:
- 受住院治疗引起的"抗愿性"推动的增加使得疫苗接种率上升了高达5.4%,SARS-CoV-2发病率降低了高达4.0%.
- 与突破性感染相关的"愿意抗药"推动的减少对疫苗接种率和疾病结果的影响最小.
- 影响决策的社区层面因素显示,与以个人为中心的干预相比,预防感染的潜力更大.
结论:
- 针对社区层面的决策因素的干预措施在预防SARS-CoV-2感染方面比专注于个人疫苗接种史的干预措施更有效.
- 反应性疫苗推广干预提供有限的短期效益.
- 未来的干预措施应设计以预测流行病曲线,以最大限度地预防影响.
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