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估计由于绿色的城市热量相关死亡负担:全球建模研究
Yao Wu1, Bo Wen1, Tingting Ye1
1Climate, Air Quality Research Unit, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia.
The Lancet. Planetary health
|May 3, 2025
概括
增加城市绿色可以显著减少全球与热有关的死亡. 这项研究发现,增强植被可以降低温度,并减轻与热暴露相关的死亡负担.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 城市规划 城市规划
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 暴露于热量是一个主要的公共卫生问题,气候变化加剧了这一问题.
- 城市绿化是减轻热量影响和减少与热量相关的死亡率的拟议策略.
- 现有的研究表明,绿色和热死亡率之间存在联系,但缺乏全面的全球估计.
研究的目的:
- 通过增加城市绿化来量化全球与高温有关的死亡人数的潜在减少.
- 估计不同程度的绿色增强对环境温度和死亡率的影响.
- 通过绿化战略,确定有最大潜力通过绿化战略减少与热有关的死亡率的地区.
主要方法:
- 使用了多阶段的元分析方法,分析了全球11534个城市地区 (2000-2019) 的数据.
- 增强植被指数 (EVI) 用于量化绿色,使用随机森林模拟的反事实场景.
- 用来自53个国家的830个地点的数据评估了热死亡率的关联,并将其推断为全球范围.
主要成果:
- 据估计,10%,20%或30%的EVI增加将使温暖季的平均温度分别降低0.08°C,0.14°C和0.19°C.
- 热暴露占全球总死亡人数的2.48%. 增加10%,20%或30%的绿色可以分别减少0.67,0.80,0.91个百分点的可归因分数.
- 预计与高温有关的死亡率的可归因部分下降幅度最大的是南欧.
结论:
- 城市绿化增加为减少全球与热相关死亡率的负担提供了巨大的潜力.
- 建议以保护和扩大绿色基础设施为重点的战略来降低环境温度和减轻热量对健康的影响.
- 这项研究提供了量化证据,支持绿色在气候变化适应和公共卫生弹性方面的作用.
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