人为气候变化导致美国野火颗粒物和相关死亡率
Beverly E Law1, John T Abatzoglou2, Christopher R Schwalm3
1Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR USA.
概括
人为气候变化在美国显著增加了因野火烟雾暴露造成的人类死亡率和经济损失. 这些影响预计在气候轨迹或土地管理没有变化的情况下会恶化.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候科学 气候科学
背景情况:
- 气候变化正在增加北美森林火灾的范围.
- 野火烟雾对人类健康和经济构成重大风险.
研究的目的:
- 量化人类气候变化对人类死亡率和因野火颗粒物暴露造成的经济负担的贡献.
- 从2006年到2020年,分析这些影响在县和州层面.
主要方法:
- 综合气候预测,气候-野火模型和野火烟雾模型.
- 利用排放和健康影响建模来评估人类死亡率和经济负担.
- 分析了美国连续地区 (2006-2020年) 的县级和州级数据.
主要成果:
- 15年来,气候变化导致大约15,000起野火颗粒物死亡.
- 累计的经济负担达到1600亿美元,其中34%的额外死亡发生在2020年 (580亿美元).
- 经济影响在加利福尼亚州,俄勒冈州和华盛顿州最严重.
结论:
- 如果气候轨迹,土地管理和人口没有变化,气候变化通过野火烟雾对健康的间接影响将会升级.
- 迫切需要缓解和适应战略,以应对野火烟雾日益增长的威胁.
- 政策干预应考虑与气候驱动的野火相关的重大人类健康和经济成本.
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