到2040年,原发性硬化性胆道炎的流行病学趋势和预测未来:2040年初级硬化性胆道炎的流行病学趋势和预测未来:更新的元分析和建模研究
Meysam Olfatifar1, Mohsen Rajabnia2, Amir Sadeghi3
1Gastroenterology and Hepatology Diseases Research Center, Qom University of Medical Sciences, Qom, Iran.
PloS one
|May 5, 2025
概括
主要硬化性胆道炎 (PSC) 在全球范围内正在增加. 预测显示,到2040年,PSC患病率将大幅增加,特别是在北美和西欧,这表明疾病负担正在增加.
科学领域:
- 肝病学和胃肠病学 肝病学和胃肠学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 原发性硬化性胆道炎 (PSC) 的发病率和流行率在地理位置上有所不同.
- 对PSC的全面全球数据和未来趋势分析是有限的.
研究的目的:
- 通过2024年对PSC患病率进行更新的元分析.
- 预测从2024年到2040年,PSC的全球和区域流行率.
主要方法:
- 系统的文献搜索主要研究报告PSC发病率,流行率和死亡率到2024年.
- 开发一种疾病死亡多州模型,用于预测PSC患病率.
主要成果:
- 全球聚合PSC发生率:0.65/100,000;流行率:7.52/100,000. 在全球聚合PSC发生率:0.65/100,000;流行率:7.52/100,000.
- 预计到2040年,全球PSC患病率将达到22.98/100,000 (28.3%的增长).
- 北美和西欧显示,PSC患病率的预测显著增加.
结论:
- 最近,人们观察到PSC病例的大幅增加.
- 这种疾病预计将在全球范围内构成重大未来健康负担.
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