评估有效性和毒性终点之间的相关性在贝叶斯最佳II期设计的性能中的作用
Xun Xu1, Ying Yuan2, J Jack Lee2
1Department of Biostatistics and Data Science, School of Public Health, University of Texas, Houston 77030, TX, United States; Department of Biostatistics, The University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center, Houston 77030, TX, United States.
Contemporary clinical trials
|May 5, 2025
概括
了解疗效与毒性之间的相关性对于贝叶斯最佳II期 (BOP2) 设计至关重要. 这项研究揭示了相关性如何影响统计能力和I型错误,为准确的临床试验规划提供了指导.
科学领域:
- 临床试验方法论 临床试验方法论
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
- 药学研究 药学研究
背景情况:
- 贝叶斯最佳II期 (BOP2) 设计对于评估新疗法,平衡疗效和毒性至关重要.
- 疗效与毒性之间的相关性显著影响BOP2设计性能,但这种相关性在实践中往往是未知的.
- 准确估计这种相关性对于保持统计能力和控制I型错误至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估疗效-毒性相关性 (用phi系数测量) 对BOP2设计性能的影响.
- 评估这种相关性在设计和数据分析阶段如何影响统计能力和I型错误.
- 为在BOP2设计中选择适当的相关性假设提供建议,当真正的相关性未知时.
主要方法:
- 利用phi系数来量化治疗疗效与毒性之间的相关性.
- 在设计阶段评估了不同phi值对BOP2设计功率的影响.
- 在数据分析阶段进行了灵敏度分析,并预先确定了停车界限以评估功率.
- 进行模拟以调查假设和真实phi值之间的差异.
主要成果:
- 在设计阶段,随着 phi 的增加,统计能力会增加.
- 在数据分析阶段,由于固定的停止边界,功率随着phi的增加而下降.
- 在设计中假设比现实更高的 phi 会导致超强和膨胀的 Type I 错误.
- 假设设计中的phi值低于实际情况,则在控制I型错误的同时导致低功率.
结论:
- 在BOP2设计中,假设相关性 (phi) 的选择至关重要,并影响试验结果.
- 对于积极的疗效-毒性相关性,建议假设独立性 (phi=0) 为强大的功率.
- 对于负相关性,建议在下界附近使用phi值,以确保控制的I型错误.
- 准确的评估或有效性-毒性相关性的保守估计对于可靠的BOP2试验设计是必要的.
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