连贯性和连接错误的错误论
Annetta Snell1, Madison Burt1, Miron Zuckerman1
1University of Rochester, NY, USA.
Personality & social psychology bulletin
|May 6, 2025
概括
结合谬误,一个联合事件似乎比单一事件更有可能发生,受叙事连贯性的影响. 故事连贯性增加会导致更多的结合谬误,而连贯性减少会减少错误.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策 决策 决策 决策
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 结合谬论描述的是判断一个事件的结合比它的组成部分更有可能的倾向.
- 以前的研究表明,叙事连贯性可能在这种谬误的发生中起作用.
研究的目的:
- 调查事件序列连贯性对连接谬误的影响.
- 要确定操纵连贯性是否会影响犯下连接谬误的可能性.
主要方法:
- 参与者被展示了三个事件序列,设计要么连贯,要么不连贯.
- 在多项研究中,通过口头,身体或音乐方式传递事件.
- 连接谬误的频率在连贯条件和非连贯条件之间进行了比较.
主要成果:
- 参与者在连贯条件下明显更有可能犯下连接谬误.
- 相反,当事件序列不连贯时,参与者不太可能犯错误.
- 连贯性对谬误的影响在不同的呈现方式中被观察到.
结论:
- 叙事连贯性是诱导结合谬误的一个重要因素.
- 事件形成一个连贯的故事的程度直接影响概率评估中的判断错误.
- 了解连贯效应对于解释和减轻决策中的认知偏见至关重要.
更多相关视频
07:56Assessing the Coherence of Parents' Short Narratives Regarding their Child Using the Five-Minute Speech Sample Procedure
Published on: September 19, 2019
9.8K
05:22Dissociation of the Confounding Influences of Expectancy and Integrative Difficulty Residing in Anomalous Sentences in Event-related Potential Studies
Published on: May 9, 2019
5.3K
相关概念视频
Cause and Effect
10.8K
While variables are sometimes correlated because one does cause the other, it could also be that some other factor, a confounding variable, is actually causing the systematic movement in our variables of interest. For instance, as sales in ice cream increase, so does the overall rate of crime. Is it possible that indulging in your favorite flavor of ice cream could send you on a crime spree? Or, after committing crime do you think you might decide to treat yourself to a cone?
10.8K
Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II
146
The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:
146
Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I
132
The Bradford Hill criteria are a group of principles that provide a framework to determine a causal relationship between a specific factor and a disease. There are nine criteria that are pivotal in assessing causality in epidemiological studies. Here's a closer look at Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality criteria with definitions and examples:
132
Cohesion
50.2K
Cohesion is the attraction between molecules of the same type, such as water molecules. Water molecules have an overall neutral charge but are polar molecule. An oxygen atom in one water molecule has a partial negative charge that can bind to a hydrogen atom with a partial positive charge in a second water molecule, forming a hydrogen bond. Each water molecule can form up to four hydrogen bonds with other water molecules. Hydrogen bonds are responsible for water's cohesive nature.
On a...
On a...
50.2K
Correlation and Causation
37.2K
Statistical tests can calculate whether there is a relationship, or correlation, between independent and dependent variables. An indirect relationship of the variables signifies a correlation, while a direct relationship shows causation. If it is determined that no connection exists between the variables, then the correlation is a coincidence.
Correlation versus Causation
If the dependent variable increases or decreases when the independent variable increases, there is a positive or negative...
Correlation versus Causation
If the dependent variable increases or decreases when the independent variable increases, there is a positive or negative...
37.2K
Cognitive Dissonance
32.2K
Social psychologists have documented that feeling good about ourselves and maintaining positive self-esteem is a powerful motivator of human behavior (Tavris & Aronson, 2008). In the United States, members of the predominant culture typically think very highly of themselves and view themselves as good people who are above average on many desirable traits (Ehrlinger, Gilovich, & Ross, 2005). Often, our behavior, attitudes, and beliefs are affected when we experience a threat to our...
32.2K
