森林碳变化在塑造未来土地利用和土地覆盖变化中的作用
Meng Luo1, Xin Zhao2,3, Dalei Hao4
1Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, Wisconsin, USA.
Global change biology
|May 7, 2025
概括
全球变化对森林碳产生重大影响,影响未来的土地使用和土地覆盖面的变化. 二氧化碳施肥是主要的驱动因素,增加了森林碳,改变了土地使用预测.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
背景情况:
- 全球变化,包括大气中的CO2,气候变量和沉积,影响全球森林碳.
- 这些变化对森林面积,木材需求,碳储存以及随后的土地利用和土地覆盖变化 (LULCC) 的影响未得到充分研究.
研究的目的:
- 探索全球变化驱动的森林碳动态如何塑造未来LULCC预测.
- 确定影响这些LULCC变化的潜在驱动因素.
主要方法:
- 纳入全球变化对森林碳的影响 (来自加拿大土地表面计划包括生物地球化学循环模型) 进入全球变化分析模型.
- 在三种共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 和代表度路径 (RCP) 组合下,利用了来自两个地球系统模型 (ESM) 的预测 (SSP126,SSP370,SSP585).
主要成果:
- 考虑到森林碳变化减少了经营森林和牧场的预期扩张,减少了未经营土地的损失,增加了耕地的可用性.
- 二氧化碳施肥是主要的驱动因素,增加了森林植被和土壤碳,导致SSP585.5下的2100年显著的LULCC.
- 气候变化对LULCC产生了显著影响,而沉积对LULCC产生了轻微影响.
结论:
- 森林碳变化显著影响未来的LULCC动态.
- 二氧化碳施肥在推动这些变化方面发挥着至关重要的作用,突出显示了其在未来土地利用规划和气候变化缓解战略中的重要性.
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