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将极端气候和天气归因于北半球的海冰和陆地雪:进展,挑战和前进的途径
Kunhui Ye1, Judah Cohen2,3, Hans W Chen4
1Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
概括
北半球的海冰和雪正在减少,影响极端天气. 本综述综合了关于这些冰层气候联系的研究,突出了不确定性和未来的研究需要更好的预测.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 冰层研究研究 冰层研究
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 海冰和雪是影响全球气候系统的重要冰层组成部分.
- 北半球 (NH) 海冰和春季雪的减少与极端天气事件如寒冷,热浪,干旱和野火有关.
研究的目的:
- 综合当前关于将气候和天气极端事件归因于NH海冰和雪的变化方面的研究.
- 评估观察到的联系,物理路径和相关的不确定性.
- 提出未来的研究方向,以改善理解和预测.
主要方法:
- 审查和综合现有科学文献.
- 评估冷层变化与极端天气之间观察到的联系.
- 分析物理路径和这些连接中的不确定性.
主要成果:
- 在NH海冰/雪变化和极端天气事件之间存在显著的联系.
- 目前的理解是分散的,在物理路径和方法上存在很大的不确定性.
- 将极端归因于冷层变化受到阻碍,从而冒着缓解机会的风险.
结论:
- 需要一个统一的海冰和雪的框架来理解它们的联合影响和冰层气候反.
- 未来的研究应该专注于改进观测网络,因果关系,并采用先进的方法,如人工智能和大型合奏.
- 协调的国际合作和跨学科的方法对于进步至关重要.
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