在中国的气候变化情景下,模拟Culex tritaeniorhynchus重要载体的潜在分布和未来动态
Boyang Liu1, Li Li1, Zhulin Zhang1
1College of Wildlife and Protected Area, Northeast Forestry University, 26 Hexing Road, Harbin 150040, China.
Insects
|May 7, 2025
概括
全球变暖增加了载体传播疾病的风险. 中国的Culex tritaeniorhynchus蚊子息地预计将向北扩张,影响疾病预防策略.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 载体生态学 载体生态学
背景情况:
- 全球变暖正在增加载体传播疾病 (VBD) 的风险.
- 昆虫Culex tritaeniorhynchus是人类和动物病原体的重要载体.
- 了解蚊子的分布对于预防VBD至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 模拟中国的Culex tritaeniorhynchus目前和未来的息地适应性.
- 预测气候变化对蚊子分布的影响.
- 为了告知载体监测和VBD控制策略.
主要方法:
- 使用MaxEnt.Ent进行生态利基建模.
- 利用了1100个中国事件记录的综合数据集.
- 包含多个全球气候模型 (GCM) 和气候变化场景.
主要成果:
- 目前在中国南部,中部和沿海地区观察到Culex tritaeniorhynchus的高息地适合性.
- 未来的预测表明,到2050年代,2070年代和2090年代,适合息地的持续扩张和核心分布向北转移.
- 年平均气温和城市土地被确定为最有影响力的环境变量.
结论:
- 气候变化正在推动Culex tritaeniorhynchus在中国的分布发生重大变化.
- 北部扩张需要更新载体控制和VBD监测措施.
- 这项研究为针对VBDs的公共卫生规划提供了定量见解.
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