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非洲新兴的当代货币政策问题:对气候冲击对通货膨胀的波形和量子技术的应用
Suleiman O Mamman1, Saralees Nadarajah2, Jamilu Iliyasu3
1Graduate School of Economics and Management, Ural Federal University, Russia.
PloS one
|May 7, 2025
概括
气候变化冲击对几个非洲国家的通货膨胀和粮食价格产生重大影响,增加了价格不确定性. 由于这些气候驱动的压力,央行面临管理通货膨胀的挑战.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 货币政策 货币政策 货币政策
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
背景情况:
- 气候变化冲击对价格和金融稳定构成越来越多的风险.
- 央行正在将气候变化考虑纳入其监管框架.
- 了解对通胀的具体影响对于有效的政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化冲击对食品和一般消费者价格的不对称通胀影响.
- 分析这些影响在阿尔及利亚,埃及,尼日利亚和南非.
- 评估对通胀不确定性的影响.
主要方法:
- 通过对月度数据 (2000M012023M12) 应用的时刻方法进行小组定量.
- 波形连贯性分析,以探索动态互连.
- 对不同通货膨胀制度的不对称影响的研究.
主要成果:
- 气候变化冲击和通货膨胀之间存在着动态的相互联系.
- 气候变化冲击明显增加了食品和一般消费者价格.
- 通货膨胀影响的幅度和方向随着通货膨胀制度的普遍变化而有所不同.
- 气候变化冲击导致通货膨胀的不确定性增加.
结论:
- 气候变化冲击是研究非洲经济体通胀压力和不确定性的重要驱动因素.
- 现有的货币政策工具,主要以需求为重点,可能不足以应对气候引起的通货膨胀.
- 建议中央银行加强通货膨胀监督和采用气候风险的适应性货币政策战略.
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