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根据基于多国家模糊贝叶斯网络的切割和覆盖方法分析崩风险.
Ping Liu1, Xueqiang Jin1, Yongtao Shang2
1School of Civil Engineering, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou, China.
PloS one
|May 7, 2025
概括
使用切割和覆盖方法的地铁建设经常面临倒塌风险. 这项研究开发了一个模糊的贝叶斯网络来预测崩概率并确定关键因果因素,帮助安全决策.
科学领域:
- 土木工程 土木工程是指土木工程.
- 风险管理 风险管理
- 建筑工程安全 建筑工程安全
背景情况:
- 在使用切割和覆盖方法建造地铁站时,经常发生塌事故,造成重大损坏和伤亡.
- 在中国,研究这种建筑方法的倒塌风险是有限的,这突显了关键的知识差距.
研究的目的:
- 调查和量化地铁站建设中切割和覆盖的倒塌风险.
- 开发一个预测模型来评估崩的概率和确定关键的因果因素.
主要方法:
- 使用多状态模糊贝叶斯网络模型,结合通过事故分析识别的9个中间因素和16个底部因素.
- 采用三角模糊函数用于数据模糊化和条件概率来表示节点关系.
- 纳入了基于专家可信度的调查,以准确评估节点故障概率.
主要成果:
- 开发的模型预测一个案例项目的无失败,中度失败和严重失败概率分别为71%,19%和10%.
- 敏感性分析确定了导致中度和严重崩风险的关键因果因素.
结论:
- 模糊贝叶斯网络方法有效预测崩风险概率,并确定切割和覆盖施工中的关键因果因素.
- 这种方法为提高地铁站项目的安全性和减少倒塌提供了有价值的决策支持.
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